An Asteroid Destroyed New York (in a NASA Simulation)

Year 2027: An asteroid is going to hit Earth. All attempts to divert it have failed, and it's a matter of time before it wipes New York off the map. Nearly nine million people need to be evacuated in record time, and they have to process the fact that their city will disappear. Of course, this scenario is part of a simulation that NASA and other agencies developed in recent days. The best minds faced this challenge, but even with “eight years” of advance notice and precise data, the City That Never Sleeps lay in ruins. What did we learn, and what can we do?

The position of scientists is almost unanimous: an asteroid impact is the only natural disaster that can be prevented. The problem lies in the natural lack of information, in our reaction capacity, and in time. Humanity is very used to acting after the facts, but intercepting and diverting an asteroid is a gigantic challenge in terms of prevention.

So, there's no better way to evaluate this than simulating an impact with the worst conditions, right? That's how NASA started the Planetary Defense simulation, giving more than 200 scientists, engineers, and emergency services specialists the equivalent of eight years to track an asteroid on a collision course, determine its nature, and divert it. Bruce Willis not included.

The exercise began with a minimal alert: an asteroid with an initial diameter of 100-300 meters was detected in an orbit near Earth, and it has 1 percent probability of impacting the planet on April 29, 2027. Its name? 2019PDC. The general properties of 2019PDC are similar to those of the famous 99942 Apofis, which we still keep an eye on just in case. As the months progressed in the simulation, the reports became more disturbing. 2019PDC is a contact binary 200 meters in diameter, and it's heading directly at the city of Denver. The Hiroshima bomb... multiplied by 34,000.

The solution: NASA, ESA, JAXA, Roscosmos and CNSA decide to build six kinetic impact devices. After multiple technical challenges and several missed launch windows, the devices are launched in August 2024. The good news is that they hit the target. The bad news is that they turned a very large object into two. The larger part of the asteroid was diverted, but a piece 60 meters in diameter continues on its way, with a new target: New York.

The plan to launch nuclear missiles at the asteroid drowns in political stupidity. Less than six months remain, and the only option for the U.S. government is to order the complete evacuation of New York and its surroundings. It's estimated that by 2027, the Big Apple will have about nine million inhabitants. Imagine the human factor: Where will all those displaced people go? What if some don't want to leave? And lost jobs? Mortgages, rents? People were the only thing scientists couldn't predict.

2019PDC entered Earth's atmosphere at 19 kilometers per second, and exploded 15 kilometers above Central Park, releasing energy equivalent to 1,000 Hiroshima bombs. Everything within a radius of 15 kilometers disappeared. Manhattan? History. The damage extended to a radius of 68 kilometers. Earth's defenses failed again. The record so far is 1 out of 3: The French Riviera disappeared in 2013, and they saved Tokyo in 2017, but now they lost New York. We still remember Chelyabinsk. The next simulation will be in 2021. Good luck…?

Source: News.com.au