One of the most interesting presentations that IBM makes is its package of predictions under the name "Five in Five". IBM usually participates in each of those developments (whether directly or indirectly), and it's supposed to have advanced information enough to make accurate predictions. In 2013 it consulted its crystal ball, and today we ask: How well did it do?
Predicting the future in the tech market is nearly impossible. Digital empires can be knocked out overnight (just look at the "Facebook hurricane"), and all it takes to become a major leader is a brilliant idea that resonates with users. But despite the difficulty, the truth is that everyone tries. They accumulate information, analyze trends, detect patterns, and announce what might happen. One company known for its predictions is IBM. Its "Five in Five" campaign has been around for several years, and the blue giant's vision always gets our attention. At the end of 2013, it published its five predictions, and here's the result.
Personalized Education: Failed
While online learning platforms are multiplying and more students rely on them for specialization, the global situation in traditional schools hasn't changed much, especially when we explore the so-called "developing countries". IBM imagined an explosion of smart classrooms with more flexible study processes, but if the rest of the world shows us teachers drawing interfaces because there are no computers available, it's hard to think IBM got this one right.
The Revenge of the Local Store: Absolute Failure
By far, one of the worst predictions of IBM. The giant said classic stores would experience a kind of comeback, combining the convenience of digital shopping with the advantage of seeing, touching, and trying products in person. Nothing could be further from the truth: Across the pond, people already talk about a "retail apocalypse". Toys "R" Us will close its doors after 70 years in the toy business. American Apparel closed 110 stores. J.C. Penney closed 138 stores last year. Best Buy, 250 stores. RadioShack went bankrupt twice in two years. And Amazon? Its market capitalization stands at 768 billion dollars, and Jeff Bezos is the richest man in the world.
DNA, the New Medical Tool: Hit – In Progress
In March last year, a young French man managed to cure his sickle cell anemia thanks to a new gene therapy. In 2016, a group of oncologists in the United States determined that the recurrence of leukemia in a girl from New Delhi was associated with a strange mutation after sequencing her DNA, and a more personalized medication strategy plus a bone marrow transplant saved her life. The potential of using the patient's DNA to develop more precise treatments is enormous, and successful cases around the world keep increasing; however, it has not yet left its experimental profile.
Digital Guardians: Failed
Although the market has witnessed notable advances in biometric security (with the iPhone X's facial recognition leading the way), the original prediction talked about a digital guardian for each individual, which would process contextual and historical elements in the defense of private data. Five years later, that guardian does not exist. On one hand, identity theft cases have increased since IBM made its prediction (the average is 15 million people affected in the United States alone), and on the other, the idea of centralizing security has lost traction in recent times. In fact, IBM itself seems to be exploring new alternatives (among them, blockchain technology).
Technology Applied to Cities: ... Depends
IBM imagined smart cities that reduce bureaucratic processes and adopt cloud solutions to process the constant feedback from residents. If we only stick to that, the blue giant's prediction failed... but that doesn't mean cities and governments aren't using technology today. The problem is they apply it to advanced surveillance systems, structures of media manipulation, mass campaigns through all social networks (funded with tax money), and platforms that generate digital profiles of potential voters. In the service of the people? Never. In the service of politics? Well... that's another story.
Personally, I think IBM's 2013 predictions score one and a half out of five. What do you think? Do you agree, or should something be corrected? Comments are open.
