TrendForce estimated that reballed memory would have 3–4% smartphone-market penetration in 2026 and projected it could reach 7–9% in 2027. The same forecast points to a possible way for phone makers to ease component-cost pressure, alongside risks to quality and reliability. TrendForce’s November 6, 2026 release sets out the estimates and the trade-offs.
What reballed memory is and where it is used
Reballed memory is a chip recovered from a used device and reused after its solder connections are remade. Tom’s Hardware describes removing a chip by melting its solder balls, then soldering it onto another board. The tiny connections in a Ball Grid Array (BGA) package make that work difficult.
TrendForce says LPDDR4X memory with 4GB capacity makes up most of the reballed supply in the market it describes. It says these chips are used mainly in 4G smartphones priced below CNY 1,299.
Lower component costs come with quality risks
Reusing memory can ease manufacturers’ bill-of-materials costs, which may help them keep lower-priced phones competitive as mobile DRAM prices rise. The forecast does not mean consumers will see a particular price reduction; it describes relief from manufacturers’ component-cost pressure.
TrendForce also warns that complex sourcing and uncertainty about consistent quality could undermine reliability and shorten device lifespans. It identifies possible effects on consumer confidence and brand reputation, as well as higher warranty and repair costs. These are potential consequences, not measured failure rates or costs.
The projected increase is a phone-market adoption forecast, not a matching forecast for the share of all mobile-memory demand supplied by reused chips.
Why more phones do not mean a similar share of DRAM demand
Phone-market penetration counts how widely reballed memory may be used across smartphones. LPDRAM bit consumption measures the amount of mobile memory those phones use. The two figures describe different things, so a larger share of phones does not imply an equivalent share of total memory demand.
TrendForce expects reballed memory to remain a relatively modest share of annual smartphone LPDRAM bit consumption. It also expects DRAM price increases to gain momentum in the first quarter of 2027, while noting that reballed and other lower-specification components could spread into higher-priced phone segments. That expansion remains a possibility in TrendForce’s outlook. Even with wider adoption, TrendForce expects reballed memory to have little effect on the broader upward trend in DRAM contract prices.
