Everyone has heard of the Drake equation, a mathematical formula proposed by radio astronomer Frank Drake to estimate the number of civilizations in our galaxy that might emit detectable radio signals. Economist Peter Backus, after realizing he couldn't formalize a relationship after three years, devised a similar equation to find the probability of meeting an ideal girlfriend. Is it a joke, or does it actually work?
The Drake Equation
The Drake equation was conceived in 1961 by radio astronomer and SETI Institute president Frank Drake, with the purpose of estimating the number of civilizations in our galaxy that could have detectable radio emissions. Drake worked at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Green Bank, West Virginia (USA) when he developed his equation, and the scientific community has accepted its relevance as a first theoretical approximation. The result depends on several factors, including the annual rate of star formation suitable in the galaxy, the number of these stars with planets in their orbit, and the fraction of those planets where intelligent life has developed technology and tries to communicate with other races. Drake did his job so well that other scientists and enthusiasts have tried to create similar formulas but applicable to very different problems.
One of them, perhaps the most imaginative, is economist Peter Backus. His equation was born when he realized he couldn't formalize a relationship after three years of being single. Instead of complaining about fate or looking for a date online like everyone else, he decided to apply mathematics to estimate his chances of finding a partner. The result is part of his study "Why I don't have a girlfriend: An application of the Drake Equation to love in the UK" — in Spanish, "Why I don't have a girlfriend: Application of the Drake equation to love in the U.K." — and it is an equation very similar, at least in appearance, to Drake's. Although instead of stars and planets, it considers parameters such as the age of candidates or whether she is attractive or not. Backus explains that he found "something natural about using mathematics as a way to quantify my dismay."
The solution of the Backus Equation takes into account, among others, the following parameters: the woman must be attractive and aged between 24 and 34, and hold a university degree. It also estimates that there is a one in twenty chance that she finds him attractive—an indispensable condition for the couple to form—and a 50% chance that she is single.
As a result, he found that out of the 30 million women living today in the United Kingdom, only 26 were suitable. "On any given night in London, I have only a 0.0000034% chance of meeting one of these special people," Backus laments. It seems an extremely low probability, but nonetheless, Peter has already found one of these girls. "She is from London," he says. "And she meets all my criteria." As you can see, not all is lost.
You can plug your own parameters into the Backus Equation and calculate your own chances of leaving singledom. Are you up for it?
