Counterpoint Research estimated that sales of the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max together were 3.1% higher year over year in the first three weeks after launch than sales of the iPhone 17 Pro series in its comparable period. The regional picture was sharply different: Counterpoint estimated sales were down 4% in the United States and up 29% in China.
What the 3.1% estimate compares
Counterpoint’s Smartphone Weekly Sales Tracker measured the combined Pro and Pro Max series during the first three weeks after the September 2026 launch. The global estimate compares that period with the first three weeks after the iPhone 17 Pro series launched the previous year. It is a tracker estimate, not an Apple-reported sales figure.
The US and China moved in opposite directions
Counterpoint’s year-over-year estimates show how the global increase masked distinct regional results. The gap between China’s +29% and the US’s -4% is 33 percentage points. That compares the growth rates, not the number of phones sold.
| Market or category | Estimated year-over-year sales change | Comparison period |
| Global | +3.1% | First three weeks after launch |
| United States | -4% | First three weeks after launch |
| China | +29% | First three weeks after launch |
| Japan | -27% | First three weeks after launch |
| Others | +3% | First three weeks after launch; aggregate category |
Counterpoint said the global increase would have been much weaker without China’s contribution. Its “Others” category is an aggregate, not an estimate for any one country.
NeoTeo previously covered a separate China-only estimate for the iPhone 18 Pro series. That comparison used a different launch window from Counterpoint’s three-week, multi-market estimate.
Counterpoint’s explanation varies by market
For China, Counterpoint pointed to better early supply than during the prior-year launch and higher prices among competing Chinese Android flagship models. For the United States, it cited higher prices and consumers’ limited perception of meaningful feature or design improvements. In Japan, Counterpoint attributed part of the decline to higher prices amplified by exchange-rate effects. These are qualitative explanations, not quantified contributions to the sales changes.
Pro Max made up 56% of series sales
Counterpoint estimated that the iPhone 18 Pro Max represented 56% of Pro-series sales in the first three weeks, compared with 57% for the previous year’s series in its comparable period. The Pro Max’s share therefore fell by one percentage point. Counterpoint also said sales growth in emerging markets, including India and Southeast Asia, leaned more toward the Pro model.
In its October 27 report, Counterpoint associate director Sujeong Lim said subsequent weekly tracking would help clarify whether China’s outperformance reflected durable demand or front-loaded buying.
