Advances in science and medicine have allowed us to extend life expectancy notably, but death hasn't gone anywhere, and it's something we all must face sooner or later. "Sooner or later." A person's time on this earth depends on many factors, making it impossible to accurately calculate the remaining years. Yet, this simulation from FlowingData presents some very interesting percentages.
The Numbers Behind the Question
According to a series of data published by the World Health Organization, Japan leads the life expectancy table with an average of 84 years. If we compare this with the demographic problems facing that country, we can conclude that the original WHO information is correct. Now, we must make room for other doubts. How is that number reached? What are the differences compared to, for example, Brazil, which has an average ten years lower? That's when we enter the world of factors like the quality of food and water, climate, pollution, access to health systems, habits and customs (whether personal or regional), common jobs, and a long etcetera. Due to all these variables, it's impossible to know with certainty how much time we have left in life... and we haven't even mentioned what many call "bad luck." So... why do we keep asking that same question over and over?
The folks at FlowingData have tried to answer in their own way, creating an interactive chart that calculates the probabilities of reaching a certain age based on data published by the U.S. Social Security Administration. Naturally, all the percentages decrease as our age advances, and the fact that we are not U.S. residents takes a bit of value away, but I must admit it's a very well-crafted simulation. I imagine other databases could be used to adjust the results to local situations. Let the simulation run for several minutes and you'll see the percentages become more stable, which is when the idea of our life expectancy becomes a bit more solid.
Why We Keep Asking
The point is that we will never stop asking how much time we have left... and that's okay. Some will think it exposes our doubts and fears, but it also confirms that we are human, and it's part of our nature to try to push the line a bit further. Look at the last hundred years in science, medicine, work, and safety (with two world wars in between) and tell me if we haven't succeeded. I recently turned 35, certainly an important number, and honestly, I asked myself if I'll have another 35 years. According to the simulator, the odds are very good, but what it can't tell me is whether they'll be "good" 35 years. That's up to us, so let's try to make them so.
