One of the many questions floating around the world of computing is how manufacturers will extend Moore's Law and pack more transistors into processors. Intel seems to have everything lined up for 10 nanometers, but it has anticipated that reaching the 7-nanometer milestone will require new materials, symbolizing the abandonment of silicon.
Things have gotten a bit complicated for Intel in recent months. The launch of its Broadwell chips was plagued by delays, which in other words tells us that 14 nanometers gave the Santa Clara giant a very good fight. The only alternative to overcome those issues is to keep moving forward. At the latest ISSCC conference, Intel explained that the first units with 10-nanometer manufacturing should arrive at the end of 2016, or in the first quarter of 2017, provided nothing unpleasant comes up along the way. However, the key point is that Intel admitted the need for new materials when it comes to 7 nanometers.
The Last Stop for Silicon
If we follow the tick-tock development structure, Broadwell will be replaced by Skylake, a new architecture at 14 nanometers, and then by Cannonlake, its reduction to 10 nanometers. From there, information becomes scarce, though everything points to 10 nanometers as the last stop for silicon. What will replace it? The number one candidate is indium gallium arsenide, a semiconductor from the III-V group. These semiconductors are recognized for having higher electron mobility, which translates into smaller and faster transistors when changing state. Also considered is the possibility of applying EUV (Extreme UV) lithography, but it is not ready yet, and we will have to wait until at least 5 nanometers to see it in action.
Intel is obliged to optimize its packaging for logical reasons such as form factor, temperature, and energy consumption. First, there is a 2.5D design, in which two dies are placed side by side on an interposer, and 3D, which stacks those same dies one on top of the other, drastically increasing processing power in compact formats and mobile devices. Silicon is running out of fuel, but despite everything, perhaps that is good news.
