We have covered almost a fifth of the 21st century, and we would love to say that the ghost of nuclear war has been exorcised… but it hasn't. In fact, interest in maintaining and optimizing nuclear arsenals remains as strong as ever, and given global volatility, we just need a couple of madmen pressing the wrong buttons for everything to go to hell. The Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University published "Plan A", a large-scale nuclear war simulation that details the first hours of an atomic exchange, and of course, the death toll.
Nuclear war. It sounds very 'Cold War', but the possibility of having one this century is significant, and we also can't forget the things that brought us close to it in the past. Critical events such as the detonation of the Tsar Bomba, multiple tests conducted on US soil, and the paranoia behind the construction of nuclear shelters are good examples. We must also add the difficulties in food supply, and the protection of information.
It is no coincidence that the super-rich buy restored shelters or properties on remote islands around the globe. Doubts about the stability of our global politics will never completely disappear, and those who have the money, well… prepare their escape plan. What's left for us? Get more information, evaluate more scenarios, run simulations. The Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University did exactly that with its so-called "Plan A", and these were the results:
The starting point is under the context of a conventional non-nuclear conflict. In an attempt to stop NATO's advance, Russia launches a warning nuclear attack from a base near Kaliningrad. The coalition's response is a tactical air strike.
Once that threshold is crossed, tactical nuclear war spreads to all of Europe. Russia launches 300 warheads with aircraft and short-range missiles to eliminate NATO bases and troops in motion. NATO's response adds 180 nuclear warheads. 2.6 million casualties in three hours.
Europe is essentially erased from the map. NATO launches a new attack of 600 warheads from submarines and continental positions in the United States, with the aim of nullifying Russia's nuclear capability. Before losing its weapons, Russia responds with missiles in silos, submarines, and mobile systems. 3.4 million casualties in 45 minutes.
https://old.neoteo.com/que-pasaria-si-detonan-todas-las-bombas-nucleares/The last phase of the simulation explores attempts to neutralize recovery capability. NATO and Russia attack the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the enemy, using between five and ten warheads per city, depending on the exact population. 85.3 million casualties in 45 minutes.
91.5 million in four and a half hours. It is necessary to point out that the simulation applies the concept of 'casualty', which forces us to distinguish between 34.1 million dead and 57.4 million wounded. That completely ignores the effects of radiation and fallout, so the number in the medium term will be much higher. Game over. There are no winners. Would you like a game of chess, Dr. Falken...?
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