SemiAnalysis estimated on November 3, 2026, that SpaceX could reach about 13 GW of data-center capacity in 2027, revising its earlier estimate of 10 GW. The figure is a forecast. In the same analysis, SemiAnalysis said it had identified more than 9 GW of potential capacity, with 3.6 GW under construction at the time.
What the 13 GW estimate counts
The figures describe different stages of the buildout: a 2027 forecast, sites assessed for potential capacity, and projects reported under construction.
| Category | Capacity | What it describes |
| Estimated for 2027 | About 13 GW | SemiAnalysis’s forecast for SpaceX’s data-center capacity |
| Sites identified | More than 9 GW | Potential capacity across sites assessed by SemiAnalysis |
| Under construction | 3.6 GW | Capacity SemiAnalysis said was under construction in its November 3 analysis |
The 13 GW estimate is not a count of operating data centers. It is SemiAnalysis’s projection of where the buildout could reach in 2027; the other figures describe sites and construction activity reported in that analysis.
Construction across Colossus and Starbase
SemiAnalysis reported different timelines for separate projects. Colossus 1, a 150 MW retrofit and build, took 122 days, while the 210 MW Colossus 2 build took 91 days. MiniHard was reported to have taken about five months. At Gun Range, SemiAnalysis described a target of about four months, not a completed construction time.
At Starbase in Texas, SemiAnalysis described two data centers in development and estimated that the site could exceed 1 GW. For Project SPAM at Colossus 2, the analysis gave October 5, 2026, as the construction start date and said the first computing systems were targeted to begin operating in December 2026.
Power and operational reliability
Power availability is a constraint in SemiAnalysis’s assessment. It compared more than 9 GW of data-center capacity expected to come online with more than 8 GW of likely generation, and estimated a possible Colossus 2 power gap above 300 MW under its assumptions. The analysis also said that 5.9 GWh of battery storage was being installed at Colossus 2. It cited grid-service requests of 700 MW for Macrohard and 450 MW for MiniHard.
Separate reporting has focused on reliability as well as construction speed. In an interview published September 10, 2026, Grace Kay of The Information reported that SpaceX was adding backup cooling and power systems. Kay also reported a major outage at one data center a few weeks after SpaceX leadership took over and began making changes.
