A model by Vish Nandlall, published October 7, 2026, estimates that a 40-square-meter (about 431-square-foot) array scenario could support outdoor, busy-hour demand for a 10% mobile share up to a population density of about 212 people per square mile. That is a conditional model estimate, not a measurement of Starlink Mobile’s service performance.
How the base-case estimate is calculated
Nandlall’s base case assumes an altitude of about 205 miles, 25 MHz of downlink spectrum and a spectral efficiency of 1 bit/s/Hz. Spectral efficiency describes how much data a system carries for each unit of spectrum; at the assumed rate, 25 MHz yields about 25 Mbps across a beam roughly 5.8 miles wide. The model assigns that beam an area capacity of about 0.85 Mbps per square mile.
The demand side starts with an assumed 20 GB of monthly use per subscriber and a busy-hour load of 0.10 Mbps per subscriber. The model assumes 40% of traffic takes place outdoors or in vehicles, leaving about 0.04 Mbps of satellite demand per subscriber during the busy hour. Dividing the modeled area capacity by that demand yields roughly 21 subscribers per square mile. At a 10% mobile share, that corresponds to a population-density threshold of about 212 people per square mile.
The assumptions matter. With outdoor or in-vehicle traffic set to 30%, the model’s threshold rises to about 282 people per square mile; at 60%, it falls to about 142. Doubling phone use brings the estimate to roughly 106 people per square mile.
Three array scenarios, three estimated thresholds
The larger array areas are alternative inputs in Nandlall’s model. At the same assumed 10% mobile share, they produce these estimates:
| Modeled array area | Estimated density threshold | Assumed mobile share |
| 40 m² (about 431 sq. ft.) | About 212 people per sq. mi. | 10% |
| 120 m² (about 1,292 sq. ft.) | About 953 people per sq. mi. | 10% |
| 250 m² (about 2,691 sq. ft.) | More than 2,590 people per sq. mi. | 10% |
The comparison illustrates how the model’s estimated threshold changes with array area. It does not describe confirmed Starlink Mobile hardware dimensions.
What the U.S. population map shows
For the lower 48 United States, Nandlall’s mapping places about 91% of populated land below the base-case threshold, representing about 23% of the population. The map uses 2010 Census ZIP/ZCTA population and land data scaled to 2025. It is a U.S.-specific distribution, rather than a population estimate for other countries.
Why denser areas shift toward ground infrastructure
The model’s base case serves a limited amount of busy-hour traffic per area. In its hybrid-network scenario, denser areas therefore call for additional terrestrial radios, sites and backhaul alongside satellite capacity.
For areas with about 259 to 3,885 people per square mile, the model estimates roughly 44 terrestrial nodes per square mile, each with a radius of about 492 feet. Across that density band, it estimates about 8.1 million nodes. These are modeled network requirements, not a reported deployment.
The measurement that could test the model
Nandlall identifies busy-hour capacity per square mile as a future measurement that could test the model’s assumptions.
