Jay Goldberg, a semiconductor analyst at Seaport Research Partners, estimated in an interview published October 21, 2026, that significant commercial production at Terafab might not arrive until 2030. Elon Musk’s reported target for volume production is the third quarter of 2028, though the fourth quarter was also described as possible and the schedule carries substantial uncertainty.
What the 2030 estimate covers
Goldberg’s estimate concerns significant commercial production. Reuters reported on October 20, 2026, that Musk’s target was volume production in the third quarter of 2028, with the third or fourth quarter described as possible outcomes. The dates refer to different production milestones, not a single agreed start date.
The planned main facility in Texas is intended to combine advanced logic and memory-chip manufacturing with packaging and testing. Goldberg stressed the difference between making a chip and producing chips at commercial scale, which helps explain why a working chip and sustained high-volume output are distinct milestones.
The Austin test chip is a separate milestone
Musk’s reported target for a functional SRAM test chip is May or June 2027 at a research facility in Austin. That is separate from the planned Texas complex and its volume-production target.
SRAM is a type of memory circuit. A test chip at the Austin research facility is an early research milestone; the larger production target concerns the main Texas facility. For a separate equipment story, NeoTeo previously covered a reported timeline for Terafab’s first ASML EUV scanner.
What the reported first equipment batch could support
Goldberg relayed an unnamed person familiar with equipment orders’ expectation that the first small batch of machinery was unlikely to arrive before 2028. The account described the equipment as supporting worker training and process familiarization, rather than commercial factory operation.
