On October 26, 2026, the UK government estimated that AI adoption and investment in data could add £55 billion–£140 billion to UK gross value added (GVA) in 2030, with £120 billion as the central estimate. The answer described the projection as highly uncertain. Read the parliamentary answer.
What the 2030 estimate measures
The government linked the projected GVA range to a possible 0.4–1.3 percentage-point addition to UK productivity growth from AI adoption and data investment. These are forecasts of potential economic effects in 2030, not recorded gains.
Where the earlier £400 billion figure came from
The parliamentary answer traced the earlier estimate of more than £400 billion to a publicly available 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by Public First. That report estimated potential value for the UK from generative AI tools by 2030. Its stated measure differs from the government’s later estimate, which expresses the potential effect as an addition to GVA linked to AI adoption and data investment.
The question behind the answer
Dr Ben Spencer tabled written question UIN 32092 on October 9, 2026, asking for the basis of the £400 billion estimate and whether the analysis would be published. Kanishka Narayan answered on October 26.
