Last Friday, NASA published an article with a headline that immediately caused a stir: 2014 was the hottest year since records began. According to data from the space agency and NOAA, 2014 surpasses the records set in 2010, 2005, and 1998. However, other sources indicate that the scientists responsible admitted a level of accuracy of just 38 percent. So, do we have 38 percent of the record, or a 62 percent invention?
In the world of science, personal opinions are irrelevant to the facts, and global warming is definitely a fact, with the difference that the need to prove it again and again has become established. As someone who has lived through days of 29 degrees in the middle of winter (when it should be one or two degrees below zero), I am convinced that something has changed, but in the name of scientific skepticism we must continue measuring temperatures, evaluating analysis methods, and comparing data to detect errors. On January 16, NASA published an entry in which it reports that 2014 was the hottest year ever recorded. In fact, NASA placed 2014 as the hottest year since the late 1800s, and these data are joined by studies published by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the Japan Meteorological Agency.
A Record Under Scrutiny
NASA measures its temperatures using as main reference the average temperature between 1951 and 1980. Under these parameters, 2014 merely continues the trend of whole years that have not fallen below that average, the last being 1976. In other words, 2014 has defeated other previous years that set records: 2010, 2005, and 1998, three years in which El Niño was at work. The El Niño and La Niña combo can greatly alter records, but 2014 maintained a central position between both effects, and still it was warm enough to set a new mark. Now, the question is: Is it truly a record?
Two days after the NASA announcement, new information emerged indicating that Gavin Schmidt, director of the Goddard Institute, admitted the existence of a margin of error in the measurements. Apparently, 2014 took the record from 2010 by just two hundredths of a degree, when the official margin is 0.1 degrees. A deeper study of the statistics, and Schmidt's own admission, would lead to the conclusion that NASA is certain of the record only in 38 percent. If this turns out to be true, we are facing a scandal. But there is a small detail: The source of the information is the Daily Mail. Those of us who browse the Web day after day know that the Daily Mail is a robust source for learning about the next boyfriend of Taylor Swift, the latest dress of Kim Kardashian, or Benedict Cumberbatch's new role, but not for scientific data. Anyway, I would like to see a (much) more elaborate explanation from NASA.
