First it was 2014. Then 2015 took the lead. And now 2016 arrives, throwing punches in all directions. According to the NOAA and NASA agencies, 2016 is the new king of heat. This is not a mere whim: the measurement is based on more than 130 years of accumulated data. It is the fifth time the record has been broken so far in the 21st century, and although El Niño had its share of influence, human activity remains the main factor.
A Record-Breaking Year
The Arctic is melting. Polar bears are in danger. A village in Alaska forced to relocate. And much, much heat. 2016 gave us plenty of reasons to celebrate its departure, but it had one last vengeance in store: it became the hottest year since official measurements began. With more than 130 years of data processed by several agencies around the globe, each applying different methods, all reached the same conclusion: the temperature record was broken for the third consecutive year, it is the fifth time in the century it has shattered, and 16 of the 17 warmest years on record belong to this period.
In the case of the US NOAA, its certainty percentage for the record is 62 percent, but NASA places it much higher, exceeding 95 percent (such a difference is due to the way both agencies measure Arctic impact). The average temperature across all surfaces (land and oceans) for 2016 (14.82°C) was 0.94 degrees Celsius above the average for the 20th century (13.88°C). A portion of the responsibility for the record lies with the El Niño phenomenon; however, scientists indicate its influence on the record would be at most 33 percent.
What About 2017?
What will happen in 2017? For now, data suggest El Niño will not manifest, so we won't see a fourth consecutive record break. But the most worrying aspect is directly linked to global political dynamics. In recent months, decisions have been made and leaders have been elected that could blow up the commitments made in the last Paris Agreement, sending us back to square one. From every point of view, that would be catastrophic.
NOAA
