A report published by the Centre for Technology & Statecraft (CTS) on September 26, 2026, estimates that Chinese-owned chip factories had 343 deep-ultraviolet immersion (DUVi) lithography systems by the first quarter of 2026. The group also recommends a China-wide ban on DUVi exports and tighter controls on servicing and spare parts.
CTS estimates 343 systems at Chinese-owned fabs
DUV stands for deep ultraviolet; immersion lithography uses a liquid layer in the optical path to help print chip patterns. CTS’s estimate of 343 systems covers Chinese-owned semiconductor fabs. Its broader estimate, which also includes multinational fabs operating in China, is about 396 systems, with a modeled range of 361–444.
| Scope | CTS estimate | Reference period |
| Chinese-owned semiconductor fabs | 343 systems | By Q1 2026 |
| All fabs in China, including multinational fabs | About 396 systems; modeled range 361–444 | By Q1 2026 |
What the fleet estimate includes
CTS estimates that the Chinese-owned-fab fleet includes about 270 ASML NXT:1980i systems, 22 NXT:2050i systems, six NXT:2100i systems and 45 less-advanced DUVi systems. The figures add up to 343. CTS estimates that ASML holds about 99% of the DUVi market.
The NXT:1980i is the model CTS assesses as capable of supporting production of 7-nanometer logic chips and HBM2e memory. That assessment applies to this model, not to every system in the estimated fleet.
CTS calls for tighter export controls
CTS recommends stopping DUVi exports to China and adding controls on spare parts and servicing, as well as measures to prevent diversion of systems already in the country. The recommendation is a policy proposal from the group, not a government decision described in its report.
