The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) says China may field space-based and higher-powered ground-based directed-energy systems capable of threatening satellites in higher orbits by the late 2020s. The forecast appears in the DIA’s unclassified Challenges to Security in Space, released October 26, 2026, and quoted by The War Zone. It describes a possible future capability, not a confirmed deployment.
In this article
- What the DIA forecast says
- How directed energy could affect satellites
- What the TPG1000Cs reports describe
- China’s 2007 test created a large debris field
- China’s ISR fleet in context
What the DIA forecast says
The assessment gives no specific beam technology or program name. Directed-energy systems deliver energy toward a target; the DIA’s forecast does not say whether the systems would use lasers, high-powered microwaves, particle beams or another approach. It also gives no specific altitude for the higher orbits it discusses.
The DIA says China has developed weapons intended to disrupt, damage or destroy adversary satellites and probably will continue to develop them. The assessment also describes China’s publicly known space-based counterspace capabilities as satellites able to approach and grapple with other satellites.
How directed energy could affect satellites
The DIA describes directed-energy weapons as capable of reversible and nonreversible effects. The War Zone gives signal jamming and temporary sensor dazzling as reversible examples; permanent damage is a nonreversible effect. The assessment does not assign a specific effect to a particular system in its forecast.
What the TPG1000Cs reports describe
Futura-Sciences separately describes the TPG1000Cs as a high-power microwave driver, not a complete operational weapon. The report attributes to a research paper pulses reaching 20 gigawatts for up to one minute, about 200,000 test pulses, a length of four meters and a mass of five metric tons. Those figures describe the reported driver; the DIA forecast names neither the TPG1000Cs nor microwave technology.
Futura-Sciences also reports Chinese experts’ estimate that ground-based microwave output above one gigawatt could disrupt or damage satellites in low Earth orbit. The article describes practical constraints on a ground-to-orbit microwave engagement: precisely aiming at a fast-moving satellite, a pass window of only a few dozen seconds and power loss in the atmosphere. It says the researchers claimed to have mitigated some of these effects.
China’s 2007 test created a large debris field
On January 11, 2007, China destroyed one of its own satellites in a kinetic anti-satellite test. SpacePolicyOnline reported that the test generated more than 3,000 pieces of debris. The event is a historical example of the debris created by a destructive satellite intercept.
China’s ISR fleet in context
As of July 2026, China had more than 510 intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites, according to the DIA count reported by The War Zone. That was more than three times the 2018 level. The figure counts ISR satellites, not anti-satellite weapons.
