On October 16, 2026, Maldita.es reported that some purported polls favoring Spain’s PSOE in TikTok graphics reused September figures from the country’s Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS), while other claims had no traceable survey behind them. Spain’s general election is set for November 29, 2026, under Real Decreto 806/2026. The reported graphics do not establish an election result. Maldita.es

What the graphics claimed

Maldita.es matched some figures circulating as current to the CIS’s September 2026 vote estimate: 31% for PSOE, 25.5% for the Partido Popular (PP), and 16.6% for Vox. The CIS identifies that poll as Study 3577, a Spanish monthly barometer published on September 23, 2026. Its study date was September 1. The percentages are reported by Maldita.es; the CIS study page establishes the study’s identity and dates.

Another graphic assigned CIS figures of 160 seats to PSOE, 104 to PP, and 53 to Vox. Maldita.es says CIS barometers estimate vote shares, not how many seats each party would win. A vote-share estimate and a seat projection are different measures; labeling one as the other changes what the numbers claim.

Maldita.es also reported source-free graphics, including one claiming 34% for PSOE, for which it found no traceable poll. In another graphic, the PSOE figure shifted from 31.0% to 31.7% and then 31.3% while other party figures stayed the same. The fact-check described additional inconsistencies, including conflicting dates, misspellings, incoherent footer text, and graphics carrying TikTok’s AI-generated-content label. Those details concern separate examples; they do not identify a common creator.

Different polls can report different results

Maldita.es reported that the CIS’s October estimate put PSOE at 34% and PP at 22.2%. It also reported that an October 9 DYM poll put PP at 34% and PSOE at 28.2%. These are results from distinct polls, not competing readings of the same survey. Maldita.es also reported different seat estimates from the 40dB and DYM polls, which use a separate measure from vote share.

An AI-generated-content label does not, by itself, establish who made a graphic or whether its poll figures are accurate. Dates, metrics, and a survey’s traceable source offer more concrete checks.

What makes a poll traceable?

The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) says public-opinion research should disclose enough information for independent review. Its disclosure standards give readers a practical checklist. Look for:

  • The poll’s sponsor and the organization that conducted it
  • The population the survey aimed to represent
  • How the sample was generated and participants recruited
  • The dates and mode of data collection
  • The sample size and any weighting applied
  • Data-processing and quality-control practices
  • A statement of the survey’s limitations

These details make it possible to connect a graphic to a specific survey and understand what its figures measure.