Reports published October 31 attributed to the U.S. Space Force a forecast that NASA’s Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory would make an uncontrolled reentry around November 6, 2026. The forecast described an observatory expected to mostly burn up, although some components could survive.
What the October 31 forecast said
The reports said most of Swift would burn up in the atmosphere, while some tungsten components and mirror parts could survive. They described the ocean as the likeliest destination for surviving debris and placed parts of Africa, Australia, India, Southeast Asia, Central America and South America within the possible reentry zone.
Why LINK stopped short of capture
An electrical power-system fault during LINK’s commissioning left two of its three reaction wheels unavailable, according to Katalyst Space Technologies’ account of the mission. The spacecraft entered a multi-axis spin, and communications were disrupted. Engineers restored limited attitude control using the remaining wheel and reaction-control thrusters, but thruster use rapidly consumed propellant. NASA and Katalyst concluded that LINK did not have enough fuel to safely attempt the planned capture and orbit raise.
LINK’s work after the capture plan
Katalyst says LINK continued proximity-operation exercises, tested its three robotic arms and practiced gripper grapples. It approached within 12–15 kilometers of Swift, but the imagery it collected did not resolve the observatory. Katalyst reports that LINK operated in orbit for 85 days and reentered Earth’s atmosphere on September 25, 2026. That was LINK’s reentry, separate from the forecast for Swift.
Swift’s science and final operating status
Swift launched on November 20, 2004, to study gamma-ray bursts and other energetic, transient events. Reports published October 31 credited the observatory with more than 2,000 gamma-ray bursts and about 1,400 exploding stars, along with observations of comets, asteroids and black holes. They linked its faster-than-expected orbital decline to intense solar activity.
After LINK’s rescue attempt was abandoned, Swift resumed observations. By late October, it had become too low to observe and its systems had been shut down.
