Cox Automotive’s estimates dated October 13 put Tesla at 144,094 U.S. EV sales in Q3 2026 and the full new-EV market at 262,649. Tesla’s figure was 19.7% lower than in Q3 2025; the market total was down 39.5%.
Tesla’s Q3 sales rose from Q2 but fell from a year earlier
Business Insider reported that Tesla’s estimated U.S. sales rose from 124,800 in Q2 2026 to 144,094 in Q3, an increase of about 15%. That quarter-to-quarter gain came alongside a year-over-year decline: Cox estimated 179,525 Tesla sales in Q3 2025, compared with 144,094 in Q3 2026.
The wider market also remained below its year-earlier level. Cox estimated 434,279 new U.S. EV sales in Q3 2025, versus 262,649 in Q3 2026. The estimates capture different comparisons: Tesla’s reported rise from Q2 and the annual declines for both Tesla and the market.
Rival brands had mixed results
Cox’s U.S. Q3 estimates show that selected EV brands did not move in one direction year over year. Tesla had the highest sales among these brands, while Rivian and Toyota posted increases and Cadillac and Hyundai declined.
| Brand | Estimated U.S. EV sales, Q3 2026 | Change from Q3 2025 |
| Tesla | 144,094 | -19.7% |
| Rivian | 19,239 | +45.7% |
| Toyota | 12,904 | +328.0% |
| Cadillac | 12,358 | -32.8% |
| Hyundai | 12,185 | -57.7% |
Cox Automotive director of Industry Insights Stephanie Valdez Streaty said gasoline prices above $4 per gallon made EVs look more appealing. That was her assessment of EV appeal during the quarter.
Model Y and Model 3 accounted for most of Tesla’s total
Cox’s model estimates put the Model Y at 99,037 U.S. sales in Q3 2026, down 13.8% year over year, and the Model 3 at 40,346, down 25.1%. The other listed models were Cybertruck at 4,323, down 19.7%; Model S at 215, down 88.0%; and Model X at 173, down 95.2%.
Together, Model Y and Model 3 accounted for 139,383 of Tesla’s estimated 144,094 sales, or about 96.7%. The brand’s Q3 total was therefore concentrated overwhelmingly in those two models.
