The prediction
When it comes to analyzing video games from a business perspective, few people are as controversial as Michael Pachter, and his latest statements only add fuel to the fire. According to the analyst, Sony will lose its dominance over the console market, and the vast majority of software destined for them will shift toward computers and mobile devices between 2019 and 2020.
The world of video games has proven to be quite unpredictable, but that doesn't stop certain people from trying to decipher its chaos, and one of them is Michael Pachter. This is the same Michael Pachter who criticized Mark Zuckerberg for wearing a hoodie during Facebook's IPO, who suggested in 2005 sell Netflix stock to buy Blockbuster, and who criticized Mass Effect fans for complaining excessively about the ending of the third installment. What did he throw on the table now? Nothing less than the end of consoles.
Basically, what he suggests is the loss of Sony's dominance in the market, associated with a gradual shift of console software toward mobile devices and computers (the example he gave was Call of Duty, but that saga can already be played on PC). The only users interested in purchasing consoles will be those seeking exclusive titles for each platform, while the rest will be able to be downloaded on computers and played on a television. This will happen in 2019 or 2020, and within a decade the process will repeat, with the difference that games will be downloaded on smartphones. From his point of view, Sony should make its console "do much more" than play games, and he mentioned things like PlayStation Now and PlayStation Vue. His prediction is that each new generation of consoles will be "half as big" as the previous one.
The counterpoint
Perhaps what Pachter is pointing to is a redefinition of the console concept, something we are seeing up close with the case of the Nintendo Switch. Beyond certain technical details and a limited line-up, the Switch keeps breaking records, and the Japanese giant confirmed it will double its production. The problem is that Pachter contradicts himself, because he previously said that the next generation of consoles will indeed arrive in 2020. While we must concede that the last generation consists of disguised computers after adopting x86, giving that market 36 months of life sounds a bit exaggerated. We'll see if he's right.
Source: Gamereactor
