BBVA Research reported on September 21, 2026, that employment in Spain’s most-exposed occupational groups had grown faster than average since 2022. Its analysis revisited the labor-market observatory produced with Fedea, which covered data through the second quarter of 2026.
Employment in Spain’s most AI-exposed occupations grew faster than average
The observatory found that employment in the most-exposed groups grew faster than overall employment from 2022 onward. The September 21 analysis reported the pattern across exposure groups, particularly those with high and medium-high exposure.
The finding describes employment trends; it does not identify a causal effect of AI. The observatory compared labor-market outcomes across occupations grouped by their potential exposure to generative AI.
What occupational AI exposure measures
The exposure measure estimates the potential for generative AI to perform or assist with tasks within an occupation. It classifies tasks, not whole jobs: an occupation’s exposure level describes the potential for AI to affect parts of its work.
The analysis used the ILO-NASK 2025 Global Index of Occupational Exposure, adapted to Spain’s CNO-2011 occupational classification and linked to microdata from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística’s Encuesta de Población Activa (EPA). Administrative and professional occupations were described as more exposed than manual occupations. More than 40% of workers with higher education were in high-exposure occupations, compared with about 15% of workers with basic education.
Two distinct exposure categories
Fedea reported separate totals for high- and medium-high-exposure occupations in Spain. The medium-high category is additional to the high-exposure group.
| Exposure category | Workers | Share of workers |
| High | 7.2 million | 31.6% |
| Medium-high | 5.1 million | 22.6% |
What the findings can show
The observatory’s results are descriptive comparisons of employment patterns through the second quarter of 2026. They are not a causal estimate of AI’s effect on employment or a forecast of which occupations will disappear.
