In a September 30, 2026, interview, Citi analyst Peter Lee forecast a severe global memory-chip supply shortage in 2027, driven by demand linked to artificial intelligence. The outlook centers on high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a type of memory used in AI systems.
Citi’s forecast for memory supply in 2027
Citi’s forecast is for a severe shortage next year. It rests in part on rising demand for HBM, as AI-related computing needs put pressure on memory supply.
The HBM demand behind Citi’s outlook
Citi estimates that demand for HBM bits will reach 75.2 billion gigabits in 2027, a 62% increase year over year. The market consensus cited alongside that forecast is growth of about 30%.
Citi’s HBM market-share outlook
Citi’s estimates put Samsung’s share of the HBM market at about 30% in 2026 and forecast about 42% in 2027. The forecast puts SK hynix at 35%, down from an estimated 47%, while Micron is projected to remain at 22%.
| Company | 2026 estimated HBM market share | 2027 forecast HBM market share |
| Samsung | About 30% | About 42% |
| SK hynix | About 47% | 35% |
| Micron | 22% | 22% |
Separate company supply outlooks
Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said that 75% of Micron’s 2027 memory output was already accounted for. He also said demand for Micron memory would exceed available supply for at least the next couple of years, referring to the company’s business-to-business HBM and server DRAM sales. Micron planned to open new clean rooms in 2028, with production expected to ramp up gradually.
Samsung executive Kim Taewoo estimated that HBM would use almost 30% of DRAM manufacturers’ wafer capacity in 2027, compared with 20% in 2026. SK hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung forecast that demand could exceed supply capacity beyond 2030.
