It has been said that 2015 was one of the most optimistic years for the fight against climate change; however, the numbers remind us of something elemental: if we don't find a way to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, we are going to have problems. According to the World Meteorological Organization, last year the barrier of 400 parts of CO2 per million was left behind, and although the increase was associated with natural events, it is estimated that these levels will persist for generations, even with advanced changes and cooperation agreements.
400 parts of CO2 per million. The last time Earth's atmosphere had such a concentration was five million years ago, according to experts. The new mark won't cause anything strange in the short term, but it has a very large symbolic component and warns us of something we all know well: current efforts are not enough. The entire world celebrated the Paris Agreement for being the first of its kind with such broad reach. Even so, a long time will pass before we can verify if all signatory states met the established goals. The announcement of 400 ppm was made by the World Meteorological Organization, and when studying its report, we detected that the increase had a very special actor in its distribution: El Niño.
Basically, the organization explains that El Niño began last year and remained strong during a good part of 2016, causing severe droughts in tropical regions, which in turn reduces the absorption capacity of oceans, forests, and vegetation in general. Now, the organization's secretary general, Petteri Taalas, sent a clear message: "El Niño is over, climate change is not." Taalas also added that beyond the agreements to reduce emissions of other greenhouse gases, the true "elephant in the room" remains carbon dioxide, and its emissions must be controlled as soon as possible; therefore, on the next 4th of November (the day the Paris Agreement takes effect) the most important actions should be activated before agreed.
Scientists still discuss what the "red line" for CO2 concentration is. Some believe we already exceeded it with 350 ppm, while others defend a higher limit, close to 450 ppm. What they do seem to agree on is that CO2 will not fall below 400 ppm for entire generations. The next Climate Change Conference will take place in Morocco on the 7th of November. We hope that the ideas that come out of there are promising.
