Meta’s five-year credit default swap (CDS), a contract that provides protection against a credit event, reached an intraday quote of about 119.3 basis points per year on October 22, 2026, up as much as 8.9 basis points, Bloomberg reported, citing ICE Data Services. It was the highest intraday level since the swaps began actively trading about a year earlier.
What the CDS quote measures
The 119.3-basis-point spread is a price for credit protection, not a 1.193% probability that Meta will default. A 2005 analysis by the Bank for International Settlements explains that CDS spreads reflect expected losses as well as a risk premium investors demand for taking on default risk. Estimating an implied default probability requires additional assumptions.
A CDS can hedge credit-event exposure on a corporate-bond holding. Replacing that bond with Treasury securities changes the investment and its risk exposures, so the two choices are not equivalent.
Reported spending and cash-flow figures
Seeking Alpha, in a report carried by TradingView, put Meta’s future lease and contract commitments at about $825 billion, up from nearly $700 billion reported in July 2026. Many of the commitments were tied to AI computing and infrastructure. The same report said Meta’s 2026 capital-expenditure outlook was $135 billion to $145 billion. Its lower end had risen from $130 billion, while the upper end remained $145 billion.
The report also put Meta’s third-quarter 2026 free cash flow at negative $2.12 billion, compared with positive $784 million in the prior quarter and positive $10.63 billion a year earlier. These figures add financial context to investor concerns about AI-related spending; they do not establish that spending alone caused the CDS move.
Other technology companies’ CDS costs also rose
Bloomberg reported that CDS protection costs for Oracle, Microsoft and Broadcom also rose on October 22. The report did not assign those companies Meta’s quoted level.
