Quilty Space forecasts that launch supply outside China will fall about 150 launches short of demand from satellite operators and civil space agencies through 2030. It expects the squeeze to be sharpest in 2028. The figure is a forecast, not a tally of flights already missed. Ars Technica reported the estimate on October 30, 2026.
What the forecast counts
The estimate compares projected launch supply with demand from satellite operators and civil space agencies outside China. Caleb Henry, Quilty Space’s director of research, said the shortfall might not ease until sometime in the late 2030s. Both dates are projections, not completed milestones.
Why launch supply could fall behind
The factors identified in Ars Technica’s account include growing demand from Amazon Leo; Russian rockets’ removal from Western markets after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; development delays affecting New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, Terran R and Nova; and Falcon 9’s retirement from commercial service. The account does not assign a separate share of the projected gap to each factor.
New Glenn’s projected launch cadence
Quilty Space’s conservative forecast, as reported by Ars Technica, calls for 8 New Glenn launches in 2028, 12 in 2029 and 16 in 2030.
| Year | Forecast New Glenn launches |
| 2028 | 8 |
| 2029 | 12 |
| 2030 | 16 |
These figures are projected launches, not completed flights. Ars Technica also reported that Blue Origin was building production capacity for up to 150 New Glenn upper stages a year. That is a manufacturing-capacity figure, not a forecast of 150 launches annually. Henry described Quilty’s launch projections as conservative and said Blue Origin could exceed them.
How military demand changes the scenario
The roughly 150-launch baseline excludes the cited increase in U.S. military launch demand. Ars Technica reported that U.S. Space Force demand forecasts for Lane 1 rose from an estimated 30 to 60 launches to about 170, while Lane 2 rose from 54 to 79. The reported order window for those missions spans 2025 through 2029.
In a separate scenario, the shortfall could double if military demand is added and SpaceX does not extend Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy service to meet increased national-security needs. That possibility depends on both conditions; it is not part of the baseline estimate.
Starship’s contribution depends on payload fit
Starship’s capacity and potential for rapid reuse could add launch supply, but commercial availability and payload fit matter too. Ars Technica described the vehicle’s dispenser as narrow and optimized for Starlink satellites. Telesat CEO Dan Goldberg said the company expected Starship might support future missions if Telesat’s next-generation satellites were configured to fit that dispenser.
