In an analysis published September 15, SemiAnalysis estimated that local restrictions delayed 1,525 MW across three U.S. projects and that New York’s executive order separately delayed about 0.8 GW. Together, those estimates total 2.325 GW, rounded to about 2.3 GW. The three-project count applies to the local estimate; Texas’s TCEQ permitting pause is separate. SemiAnalysis’s analysis lays out the breakdown.
What the 2.3 GW estimate includes
SemiAnalysis identifies the three local projects as an AWS campus in Ohio, a powered-land developer campus in Pennsylvania, and an unnamed site in Colorado. It estimates that about 20 GW of planned capacity falls within restricted local boundaries, while 1,525 MW is the capacity it attributes to delays from local restrictions. Being inside a restricted boundary and facing a project delay are different measures.
New York is a separate part of the total. The analysis says the state’s executive order touches about 1.4 GW of planned capacity, with about 0.8 GW facing a meaningful delay attributed to the order. Adding that estimate to the local figure gives 1.525 GW + 0.8 GW = 2.325 GW, which SemiAnalysis rounds to about 2.3 GW.
How a local restriction can delay a project
SemiAnalysis defines a data-center moratorium as a temporary legal pause, usually a freeze on new applications rather than a reversal of approvals already granted. Its tracker also includes some permanent zoning bans, a distinct category.
For a restriction to affect a project in SemiAnalysis’s estimate, the rule must cover the project parcel, block an approval the developer still needs, and overlap the project schedule. The firm says it assessed more than 6,000 facilities using property records, permits, power-use data, public-records requests, satellite imagery, and other primary sources. It mapped restrictions to project parcels and jurisdictions, checked outstanding approvals and schedule constraints, and reviewed satellite imagery.
Several factors can limit a restriction’s effect: a county measure may stop at city boundaries; a project may already have its approvals; or a short pause may expire before the approval is needed. Developers may also relocate, redesign, or litigate, while equipment lead times or other constraints may already shape the schedule.
The 2027 figure is a forecast
SemiAnalysis forecasts more than 38 GW of U.S. data-center IT capacity delivered in 2027. The firm says 22 GW is under vertical construction and that most of the remaining 16 GW is financed and undergoing site work. These are forecast figures, not a tally of capacity already delivered.
Texas is a separate policy measure
On September 21, Texas Governor Greg Abbott directed the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) to halt permits sought by data-center projects until the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) completes its audit. The notice also directed state agencies not to proceed with related regulatory approvals until the required information is acquired. It set October 19 as TCEQ’s deadline to update the Governor’s Office on compliance. The Governor’s Office notice describes the directive’s scope.
SemiAnalysis assesses the Texas measure separately from its 2.3 GW local-and-New-York estimate. The firm says the ERCOT queue pause may add three to four months of administrative delay for base-load projects in that queue; projects that do not need the grid are unaffected by that queue pause.
