On October 22, 2026, Charlie Precourt, a member of NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, described the latest estimate for the lunar lander as around 22 flights. Elon Musk countered that Starship would need 6 to 8. Precourt did not name the vehicle; Ars Technica connected his remark to SpaceX’s Starship.
How far apart are the estimates?
| Speaker | Reported flight estimate |
| Charlie Precourt | Around 22 |
| Elon Musk | 6 to 8 |
Subtracting Musk’s range from about 22 gives an approximate difference of 14 to 16 flights.
What the flights would support
The estimate concerns refueling a Starship lunar lander in low Earth orbit for a trip to the Moon, a landing, and a return to lunar orbit. It does not describe a return to Earth.
The count depends in part on how much cryogenic methane and liquid oxygen boil off, how efficiently propellant transfers between ships, and how much Starship can lift. Boil-off is propellant lost as it warms and evaporates. The report identifies these factors but does not give values for them.
