Just like inside the average casino, carnival games want to take all your money, and their owners don't hesitate to apply tricks that essentially turn those attractions into a scam. However, with careful study (and the occasional hidden camera) it's possible to determine which games offer the best odds of giving out prizes. Mark Rober's channel presents an excellent summary that divides the games into three categories and shares some details for leaving the park with several stuffed animals, or alternatively, not losing as much money in the attempt.
The Business of Carnival Games
Carnival games. Few things are as attractive and frustrating at the same time. The giant teddy bears, the t-shirts, the balls... all those prizes are very tempting, and if we're in very good company there's always the desire to show a little skill to impress. The problem is that the game owners know that, and they apply tricks that lead us to overestimate our chances. The first miss leads to a second try, and maybe a third... which multiplied by tens of thousands of visitors, amounts to a very significant sum of money. According to the recent research published by Mark Rober on his channel, that sum amounts to a not-so-insignificant 20 thousand dollars a day for a fair with 24 games.
Three Categories of Carnival Games
But Rober didn't limit himself to studying the revenue. With the help of his friends, he managed to collect a wide amount of data, including the number of participants in a game, and something critical like the number of wins. The games were divided into three categories.
Games of Chance
The first one groups together games of chance, which require no special skill. A good example is the table full of cups. 1,600 in total, with just 160 "winners" set a probability of 10 percent, but the player is forced to use very light balls that bounce a lot, and that decreases their chances even more.
Games of Skill
The second category includes games of skill. In this case, the player can train to improve, or adopt a specific strategy. By far the most popular is basketball: one ball, one hoop, and three-point shots... with a plus. The official distances to the rim in the NBA are 7.3 by 3 meters, but at the fair they use 8.5 by 3.3 meters. That difference is usually enough to interfere with muscle memory. In other words: When practicing, take two steps back and raise the hoop.
Almost Impossible to Win
Finally, there are games that are almost impossible to win. Rober and his friends watched them for a whole day, and nobody won them. One of the most sought after is tearing the star out of a piece of paper using an air rifle. At first it seems like the player will do it, but with each shot the paper loses strength, and the shots go right through without effect. Even worse is the ladder game. The first thing that comes to mind is "I can do it", however, keeping your balance requires that your center of mass stays in a line, and not in the width of the ladder. The slightest difference will make the ladder spin and make you fall.
In short: Ignore the games with huge prizes, and train for the attractions that demand skill, but just like in WarGames, the only winning move is not to play. Why? Because the cost of each game exceeds the value of the prize if we buy it online.
