On October 15, 2026, TSMC said it expects full-year 2026 revenue to grow around 44% in U.S.-dollar terms, according to its SEC-filed earnings presentation. That is management guidance, not a completed annual result. TSMC says its forward-looking statements are subject to significant risks and uncertainties.
What TSMC expects for 2026
The around-44% outlook followed earlier increases during the year. In July, Zacks Investment Research reported that TSMC’s growth outlook had moved to slightly above 40%, from a previous projection above 30%. The October presentation put the forecast at around 44%.
Q3 results and Q4 guidance
TSMC reported US$46.72 billion in third-quarter revenue, up 41.2% year over year in U.S.-dollar terms. Its fourth-quarter revenue guidance is US$52.3 billion to US$54.3 billion. The figures cover different periods and have different status: Q3 is reported revenue; Q4 is a forecast. TSMC’s earnings release says the Q3 figures had not been approved by its board of directors.
| Period | Status | Revenue | Context |
| Q3 2026 | Reported | US$46.72 billion | Up 41.2% year over year; figures had not been approved by the board of directors. |
| Q4 2026 | Management guidance | US$52.3 billion–US$54.3 billion | Forecast for the fourth quarter. |
In New Taiwan dollars, Q3 revenue was NT$1,494.24 billion, up 50.9% year over year. Net income reached NT$763.064 billion, up 68.7%, and diluted earnings per share were NT$29.43.
For Q4, TSMC also forecast a gross margin of 65%–67% and an operating margin of 56.5%–58.5%. The margin outlook uses an assumed exchange rate of US$1 to NT$31.8.
What the process mix says about demand
In Q3, 2-nanometer technology accounted for 8% of wafer revenue, 3-nanometer for 33%, 5-nanometer for 28%, and 7-nanometer for 10%. TSMC defines advanced technologies as 7-nanometer and more advanced processes; together, they made up 79% of wafer revenue.
TSMC CFO Wendell Huang said the company expected continued strong demand for leading-edge processes in Q4, including a steep ramp-up of its 2-nanometer technology. NeoTeo previously reported a target of 120,000 N2 wafers per month by the end of 2026; that was a target, not achieved output, as the earlier report explains.
The revenue outlook does not predict whether TSMC shares will rise: it is operating guidance, not an equity-price forecast.
