When Will the COVID-19 Pandemic End?

COVID-19. The disease has spread far beyond what we expected, to the point that its variants developed a certain addiction to the Greek alphabet. However, data suggests that the most recent version is less lethal compared to its predecessors. Can we talk about an endemic phase, or is it too soon? What other paths can the virus take? When will the COVID-19 pandemic end? The latest video from AsapSCIENCE explores the answers...

There is only one thing we can say with absolute certainty about COVID-19 and that everyone agrees on: We want it to go away once and for all, or at least, that it ends in the background without causing harm. Many countries are studying adapting their strategies towards the second option, an "endemic phase" that transforms COVID-19 into something we can live with.

Naturally, some experts disagree... but the darn bug has exhausted us all, and the question repeats day after day: When will the COVID-19 pandemic end? Talking about its end makes us feel a little better, however, the folks at AsapSCIENCE published a video exploring six possible scenarios or "fates" for the virus.

The end of the COVID-19 pandemic: six possibilities

One of the first details we must highlight is that the idea that a virus only evolves to become a "milder" variant is a myth. Mutations point to two essential factors: transmissibility, and the ability to evade the immune response. The longer the virus stays in its host (that is, the time we "are sick"), the greater the possibility of new mutations. Delta proved to be 60 percent more transmissible than previous variants, while Omicron blew up all the charts.

But the virus must pay a price. As the video indicates, it needs to find a balance between lethality and transmissibility. The most optimal variants under this relationship are those that spread most effectively, and Omicron is giving us a masterclass: With 30 mutations, Omicron managed to be more transmissible and infect both vaccinated people and those who fell ill with Delta. Under this seemingly endless game, experts anticipate six scenarios:

1. Advances in global vaccination campaigns will improve humanity's cellular T immunity, leading the virus to an endemic phase, with outbreaks and epidemics of various sizes, though similar to those of other respiratory diseases.
2. The virus still enters an endemic phase, but a portion of the population will be exposed to future infections. The virus will continue to evolve, and loss of immune capacity will be restored with annual vaccination campaigns.
3. One of the most optimistic scenarios is the creation of a universal vaccine, similar to what happened with measles. A single vaccine for life, and the only unprotected ones will be newborns, who will receive it when appropriate.
4. The virus will end up in a situation similar to that of the respiratory syncytial virus, which causes a significant number of infections during childhood (under two years). Symptoms are mild in the vast majority of cases, although it carries a moderate percentage of hospitalizations. Adults feel its impact less due to prior exposure.
5. The virus adopts a profile like that of Influenza A virus. Rapid evolution will allow it to escape immunity developed from previous variants, becoming a seasonal disease mainly transmitted by adults. Annual vaccines will still be useful, but will need updates.
6. The virus adopts the profile of Influenza B virus. Its evolution is slower, and it is children who spread the disease due to their lower immunity. In contrast, adults will have better defense thanks to the combination of previous infections and vaccination.

To summarize, it is very complicated. Instead of imagining when the pandemic will end, it is better to visualize that COVID-19 may never fully go away, but we know it a little better each time, and our tools to combat the disease will become more efficient.