Bill Gates AMA: The Coronavirus Crisis Could Last 6 to 10 Weeks

Many names have been associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in recent weeks, and one of the top ones is Bill Gates. From his TED talk in which he anticipated the virus's impact and our lack of preparation to his departure from Microsoft's board, a large part of the public wants to know his point of view, based on the experience he has accumulated fighting diseases with his foundation. That is how Bill Gates turned once again to Reddit to hold an AMA (Ask Me Anything) about COVID-19, together with two specialists.

Little remains to be added at this point. COVID-19 conquered the world. The main strategy of authorities is to extend the effects of social distancing to 'flatten the curve' and avoid saturation of health systems. Some countries have not fully achieved it, or started too late. Discouraging news mixes with sparks of hope and experimental tests that could limit the impact of SARS-CoV-2.

And people want more information from reliable sources, specialists, and those who have directly faced challenges like this. The responses of some politicians have left much to be desired, so it is logical to look for other references. One of the most important comes from Bill Gates, who joined Dr. Trevor Mundel (leader of the Gates Foundation's global health efforts) and Dr. Niranjan Bose (the philanthropist's chief scientific adviser) to answer a new round of questions under the classic AMA format of the Reddit portal. This is a humble summary (with slight cuts in translation) of what he answered:

Bill Gates answers the community's questions

• (On the impact of COVID-19 on students with fewer resources and without web access): "It's a huge problem that schools will likely be closed for the next few months. I know not everyone is prepared to teach remotely. There are many online resources out there. Comcast and other providers launched special programs to help with access. Microsoft and others are working to deliver systems, but the supply chain is very constrained. Unfortunately, students with fewer resources will be more affected than others, and we must help them in any way we can."
• (On the numbers published by Imperial College and 'flattening the curve'): "Fortunately, it seems the parameters used in that model were very pessimistic. The Chinese experience is the most critical data we have. They did their 'shutdown' and managed to reduce the number of cases. They are conducting extensive testing to detect rebounds, and so far they haven't seen many. They avoided a wider infection. The Imperial model doesn't fit that experience. Models are only as good as the assumptions you put into them. There are people working on models that fit more closely with what we've seen, and they will become a key tool."
• (On privileged access to testing for the rich and famous): "We need to democratize and scale up the testing system by having a CDC portal that allows people to enter their situation. Priority cases should be evaluated within 24 hours. This is definitely possible since other countries have done it. Healthcare workers should have priority. The elderly should have priority. We will be able to cover test demand within a few weeks after installing that system. Without the system, we don't know what's missing (swabs, reagents, etc.)"
• (On the possibility of reducing the 18-month period for vaccine development): "There are more than six different projects working on a vaccine. We have to prepare a lot of manufacturing for each one, knowing that some of them won't work. We will need billions of vaccines to protect the world. Vaccines require testing to guarantee their safety and effectiveness. The first vaccines will go to healthcare workers and others in critical roles. This could happen before 18 months if all goes well, but we and everyone else are being very careful not to make promises. The work is moving at full speed."
• (On how long the pandemic and shutdowns will last): "This will vary a lot from country to country. China is recording very few cases now because of its testing, and because the 'shutdown' was very effective. If a country does a good job combining testing and shutdowns, then in 6-10 weeks they should see very few cases, and they will be able to reopen."

Bill Gates also confirmed that his departure from Microsoft was not related to the pandemic, that we should remain calm, and that we need to follow the recommendations of the 'shut down' (so far, the most effective strategy) to dramatically reduce infection rates. If you want to read the rest of the AMA, don't miss it at the link below.

Access the AMA: Click here