The future will bring to the table a challenge that already keeps economists up at night: the loss of jobs due to automation. This challenge is real, and we can already feel its first effects, but as artificial intelligences become more advanced, they will displace a greater number of humans from their positions. Elon Musk himself acknowledges what lies ahead, and from his point of view, a mechanism like universal basic income will be needed to better adapt and integrate into that new world.
A Cautionary Tale from The Twilight Zone
The Brain Center at Whipple's is an old episode of The Twilight Zone that explores the effects of automation. Mr. Whipple, delighted with the process and benefits of replacing human employees with automated systems, decides to go ahead… only to find himself at the other end of the rope, replaced by a robot. This clash between flesh and metal has repeated itself on several occasions, and no matter how optimistic we are or think differently, the fact is that metal always won. What better example can we find in our history books than the Industrial Revolution? The transition was not exactly a party, and unemployment skyrocketed with the arrival of machines and steam. Today we are on the brink of another Industrial Revolution: the one of code, deep learning, algorithms, and artificial intelligences. We can be very good at our jobs, but the arguments on the other side are the same as always: artificial intelligences do not eat, do not sleep, do not get sick, do not take vacations, do not go on strike, are easy to maintain, and become cheaper (not to mention more skilled) over time. That change is already happening. The question is: How will the world respond?
Elon Musk's Vision
Elon Musk knows a thing or two about automation. After all, his companies manufacture cars, batteries, solar panels, and rockets. During an interview on CNBC, exactly this topic came up, and according to Musk, universal basic income will be needed “or something similar”. He also added that people will have the option to do more complex and interesting things, as well as having more free time. Of course, Musk's optimistic vision clashes with the pessimistic vision of many people across the pond (and throughout the rest of the world) who are convinced that UBI will only lead to laziness and economic collapse. The point is that Musk is not alone. President Obama himself acknowledged that this is a debate “for the next ten or twenty years”, while Switzerland explored the possibility of starting a basic income program, although it was rejected by a large majority.
The Road Ahead
Surely Musk will be questioned a bit more about his position on Universal Basic Income, but such a transition, if carried out, will not be reduced to giving away money. Another aspect that Musk highlighted is that of “an improved symbiosis” with digital superintelligences. In other words, we are going to have to adapt one way or another. A natural ability in humans is to invent new jobs that replace obsolete tasks. We have already found a solid example with this text. Fifty years ago, I would have occupied a newspaper's editorial office making a typewriter fly. Traditional press has not disappeared, but today I can reach thousands of screens almost instantly, and as if that were not enough, what is written here will remain intact for a long time. Personally, I believe that if the West enters the era of universal income, it will do so kicking and screaming. We have a couple of very complicated decades ahead…
CNBC
