Epidemic Calculator: Creating Models with Multiple Variables

Until now we have analyzed the need to flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming health systems, but the truth is that this does not stop the impact of COVID-19, it just makes it milder. Experts are still trying to determine the future evolution of the disease, and citing Bill Gates, the models are only as good as the assumptions that are fed into them. Would you like to calculate one with your own values? If so, visit the online calculator try the online calculator designed by researcher Gabriel Goh.

The challenges of modeling COVID-19

Some countries reacted in time. Others, too late. We also have a combination of firm, delusional, doubtful, and even sick authorities. And the economy is a constant point of conflict, as the world debates between maintaining quarantines or “rolling the dice” and restarting everything. COVID-19 left us head over heels. Disease, lesson, warning. Many things are going to have to change and improve, but before that happens, we need more details about the evolution of the pandemic.

So far, the supposedly most solid numbers come from China, where the number of cases seems to have hit a ceiling. However, the situation changes completely from one region to another. In fact, talking about a “single model” is much more complicated than it seems, not to say impossible. This is where we meet the epidemic calculator of researcher Gabriel Goh, which divides its main parameters into transmission dynamics and clinical dynamics.

How the calculator works

The calculator uses a classic infection model called SEIR, for its acronym “Susceptible - Exposed - Infected - Removed”. Under transmission dynamics we can define the initial population size, the original number of infected, “R0” or the number of secondary infections each infected person causes, the incubation period, and the time a patient remains infectious.

In clinical dynamics we configure the mortality rate, the hospital stay, the rate and time before hospitalization, the recovery delay for mild cases, and the interval between the end of incubation and the patient’s death.

At first glance, the calculator may seem too technical for the general public, but its creator does not consider himself an expert, and the goal of the project is to help us visualize all the numbers, parameters, and projections that the press shares daily without additional context.

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