The Intel 8088 processor hit the market in 1979 with just 29,000 transistors. Today we count them in the billions. Although we all agree that Moore's Law has lost its power, the fact of doubling the number of transistors every 18-24 months results in a chilling number. If we try to compare it to something, the first thing that comes to mind is world's ant population; however, the presence of our 'silicon bugs' is much, much more widespread....
The first comparison between transistors and ants dates back to September 1997, and was done by Gordon Moore himself at the Intel Developer Forum. There he cited E. O. Wilson, a Harvard biologist specializing in ants who had calculated that their global population was between 10^16 and 10^17 individuals.
In 1997 Intel had reached a production rate of 10^17 transistors per year, that is, roughly one transistor per ant. The following year the ratio increased to 1.8 transistors per ant, and it hasn't stopped growing since.
Number of transistors per ant
That said, what are the current numbers? To be honest, we don't have an update compatible with 2022, but in 2015 Kent Richardson calculated a not-to-be-sneezed-at 972 transistors per ant per year.
How did he get to that? Well, Moore himself said that in 1997 transistor production was 10^17, with a 1-to-1 ratio. If we double the number of transistors every 24 months for the next 18 years, the ratio becomes 512 to 1.
However, Moore's Law doesn't fully account for natural growth in semiconductor distribution, nor for the industry itself. Richardson sets a reasonable 5% annual growth, which extended over 18 years gives a 240% increase, and adjusted for a 50% inflation drops to 190%.
Now, a critical detail of Moore's Law is that transistors double every 24 months, but maintain the price. Therefore, 512 transistors against a 190% growth deliver just over 972 transistors per ant. At best, 100 trillion transistors (long scale).
Of course, this is what is known as a napkin calculation. First, we would need to determine with much more precision the world's ant population, and second, consider all variables of the computer market, including IoT, security, and mobile devices.
