Marco Langbroek reported that Cosmos 2612 made a close approach to ICEYE-X36 early on October 18, 2026, and later maneuvered again. He said the maneuvering made the approach’s exact timing and distance difficult to reconstruct. Langbroek’s updates

What the orbital updates say

On October 17, astronomer Jonathan McDowell said Cosmos 2612 had maneuvered on October 16 and was stationkeeping within 5 km or less of ICEYE-X36. McDowell’s post gave his estimate based on new orbital elements.

Langbroek estimated a separation of 1–2 km in an October 17 update and projected that the satellites might pass within meters hours later. A later account by Tom’s Hardware relayed his estimate of a few hundred meters, or possibly much closer, by Saturday night. Langbroek subsequently described a close approach early on October 18 and reported another maneuver at about 12:26 UTC that day. He said the maneuvering made an exact reconstruction difficult. Tom’s Hardware’s report

What ICEYE-X36 does

ICEYE-X36 is a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Earth-observation satellite. SAR uses radar to produce images at night and through cloud cover. Tom’s Hardware reported that the satellite is registered to ICEYE US, the U.S. arm of Finland-founded ICEYE, and operates in a sun-synchronous orbit at roughly 545 km. It launched on a SpaceX Falcon 9 in March 2024. Tom’s Hardware’s report

Langbroek said orbital elements showed no indication that ICEYE-X36 had been hit. He added that only the satellite’s users could confirm whether it was functioning. Langbroek’s update

A Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis published October 15 said Cosmos 2612’s maneuvers from late September into October restored alignment with ICEYE-X36’s orbital plane and brought the satellites to nearly the same altitude. The analysis noted that close-proximity operations can have benign purposes and cautioned against assuming what Russia would do next. CSIS analysis

Earlier satellite approaches

Russian satellite Luch maneuvered to about 10 km from Intelsat spacecraft in geostationary orbit, according to SpaceNews’ 2015 report. Intelsat General president Kay Sears said Luch did not interfere with the satellites’ service. SpaceNews

In a separate 2020 case, MIT Technology Review reported that Cosmos 2542 shadowed U.S. reconnaissance satellite USA 245 at a distance of less than 300 km. MIT Technology Review