NASA Artemis Program manager Jeremy Parsons said 6 to 8 flights was closer to SpaceX’s Artemis IV refueling plan than the figure of around 22, in a reported excerpt of his answer at the agency’s October 23, 2026, Artemis Acceleration event. He said NASA was not tracking as high as 22 under its assumptions unless transfer efficiency and vehicle performance differed.
How Parsons compared the estimates
Charlie Precourt, a member of NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, was reported as putting the latest estimate at around 22 flights. Elon Musk publicly countered with 6 to 8. Parsons said that lower range was closer to SpaceX’s planning estimate.
| Speaker | Flight-count estimate | Context |
| Charlie Precourt | Around 22 flights | Reported estimate for fueling Starship HLS for Artemis IV |
| Elon Musk | 6 to 8 flights | Public counter-estimate |
| Jeremy Parsons | 6 to 8 was closer to SpaceX’s plan | Said NASA was not tracking as high as 22 under its assumptions |
For the mission’s schedule, see NeoTeo’s earlier coverage of the Artemis IV landing plan.
Why Starship refueling involves multiple orbital stages
The Artemis IV Starship Human Landing System (HLS) concept relies on transferring propellant in orbit. A summary of the October 23 event describes transfers in low Earth orbit (LEO) and later in a Final Tanking Orbit (FTO), before Starship heads toward Orion in high Earth orbit. The concept therefore involves refueling at more than one orbital stage.
Which factors could change the flight count
Parsons cited transfer efficiency, possible propellant losses of 5% or 10%, and V3 vehicle performance as factors that could shift the estimate. Transfer efficiency describes how much propellant reaches the receiving vehicle; losses would leave less fuel available from each transfer.
A commenter discussing the estimates also raised mission risk alongside launch cost. Parsons said a propellant-transfer demonstration would be the best way to determine how many flights the mission needs.
