Without a doubt, astrology is one of the most popular pseudosciences in the world. Open any local newspaper or general information website, and you will most likely find a horoscope full of recommendations or warnings for each sign. However, many of its predictions seem unique and especially tailored to the reader. The reason lies in the so-called Forer Effect, the tendency to interpret certain generic and imprecise descriptions as exclusive and personal.
A quick search in today's horoscope presents me with this suggestion: Do what you can to strengthen family ties. A simple phone call with your relatives will keep you close to them. Perhaps you wonder which sign it belongs to... but does it really matter? The recommendation feels personal enough to work under any sign.
Another example: You must make that decision you have been postponing for days right now. Anyone would be shouting HOW DO YOU KNOOOOOW?!... and that is the key: 'Anyone' would feel identified with something like that. What is happening? To find an explanation, we have to travel to 1948, when psychologist Bertram Forer conducted a "personality test" with 39 of his students. Later, Forer gave each one the test result.
(Editor's note: The translation is widely circulated on the Web.)
The Forer-Barnum Effect in Action
You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you are critical of yourself. Although you have some weaknesses in your personality, you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused capacity that you have not exploited. You tend to be disciplined and controlled externally, but worried and insecure on the inside. Sometimes you have serious doubts about whether you have done the right thing or made the right decisions. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and feel disappointed when you are surrounded by restrictions and limitations. You are also proud of being an independent thinker and of not accepting others' claims without sufficient proof. But you find it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. Sometimes you are extroverted, affable, and sociable, while at other times you are introverted, cautious, and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be quite unrealistic.
Forer asked the participants to score their results on a scale from 0 (very poor) to 5 (excellent). The average of his students was above 4... but Forer soon revealed the truth: He had given exactly the same result to all his students. The text was nothing more than a mixture of phrases extracted from an astrology book, as generic as you can imagine. Still, Forer's students felt highly identified.
When repeating the study, two fundamental factors arise: The first is that the expressed content must convey importance, with the correct ratio of positive feedback to negative feedback. The so-called Pollyanna Principle (a name derived from the novel by Eleanor H. Porter) suggests that the public tends to remember positive words more often than negative ones; therefore, the Forer effect would only confirm (or why not, 'exploit') that principle.
The second factor is the authority, honesty, or charisma of the person sharing that feedback. The Forer Effect is also known as the Barnum Effect, linked to P.T. Barnum (we have talked about him in the past)), who did not hesitate to deceive or use tricks to promote his shows. Available information indicates that the Forer effect is universal, but not infallible: Self-serving bias (taking credit for successes and rejecting any responsibility for failures) would be enough to cancel the Forer effect.
Access the original study (PDF): Click here
Source: El Busto de Palas
