NASA Artemis Program Manager Jeremy Parsons said NASA was not tracking as high as Charlie Precourt’s estimate of around 22 Starship flights for Artemis IV, assuming propellant-transfer performance met expectations. Parsons said Elon Musk’s estimate of 6–8 flights was probably closer to SpaceX’s plan, and pointed to an orbital transfer demonstration as the best way to determine the count.
For broader mission context, see NeoTeo’s earlier coverage of NASA’s Artemis IV Moon-landing plan.
The two flight estimates
The estimates concern flights to supply propellant to SpaceX’s Starship Human Landing System, or HLS, for Artemis IV.
| Estimated Starship flights | Attributed to |
| Around 22 | Charlie Precourt, NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel member |
| 6–8 | Elon Musk; Parsons said this was probably closer to SpaceX’s plan |
Parsons made his remarks at an Artemis Acceleration event on Oct. 23. His assessment of the higher estimate was conditional on transfer efficiency and vehicle performance meeting assumptions.
What affects the count
Starship HLS would rely on an orbital depot to store cryogenic propellant. Other flights would replenish the depot, so the number needed for Artemis IV depends on how much propellant can be transferred and retained, as well as the vehicle’s capabilities.
Parsons identified transfer efficiency, potential propellant losses, and Starship V3 capability as factors. He cited 5% and 10% as examples of possible losses. He said an orbital propellant-transfer demonstration would be the best way to determine how many flights the mission needs.
The safety panel’s planned recommendation
Charlie Precourt said the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel planned to recommend that NASA revisit Artemis IV’s objectives and potentially its mission architecture, seeking a more balanced approach to risk.
