The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposes two separate changes to U.S. commercial space licensing: one would clarify a flight-safety calculation, and the other would add a breakup-demonstration option for uncontrolled atmospheric returns. Both are proposed rules. Their notices list November 9, 2026, as the scheduled Federal Register publication date.
The key distinction: one proposal changes how a risk calculation is combined; the other offers a breakup-demonstration option for qualifying uncontrolled returns.
| Proposal | Part 450 provision | Proposed change | Scope |
| Flight-safety limits | § 450.108(c)(4) | Clarify how relevant outcomes are combined in a conditional expected casualty calculation | Flight-safety-limit calculations |
| High-consequence protection for uncontrolled returns | § 450.101(c) | Add a breakup-demonstration option | Uncontrolled atmospheric returns; individual- and collective-risk criteria remain |
How the flight-safety calculation would change
The FAA proposes to clarify how operators calculate conditional expected casualties (CEC), the risk measure used in this flight-safety provision. For each failure mode and significant period of flight, the calculation would combine relevant outcomes from an abort with outcomes from flight outside the limits of a useful mission. A breakup within useful-mission limits would not be part of that combined calculation. The FAA’s proposed rule addresses how the calculation is assembled; operators would still determine flight-safety limits for initiating an abort.
A breakup option limited to uncontrolled returns
The second proposal concerns an uncontrolled atmospheric return (UAR), where natural forces cause orbital decay and the operator lacks control over the trajectory. Under the proposed definition, a return would not qualify as a UAR if propulsion reduced perigee below 70 nautical miles or the operator controlled the descent.
For qualifying UARs, the FAA proposes allowing operators to demonstrate that the vehicle, its components, and undeployed payloads would break up sufficiently to protect against a single event expected to cause multiple casualties. The FAA says the option would leave individual- and collective-risk criteria in place. It also says existing debris and consequence analyses would provide the information needed for the demonstration, without additional analysis or application requirements. The separate proposed rule limits this option to uncontrolled atmospheric returns.
As of November 8, 2026, both measures remain proposals. The notices schedule Federal Register publication for November 9, 2026.
